主题：Not in the Spread: Developer Defaults, Municipal Borrowing, and Bank Absorption in China未纳入预算：中国开发商违约、地方政府举债与银行承接风险

主讲人：对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院 李科杨副教授

主持人：财政税务学院 李昊楠副教授

时间：4月8日 上午10:00-11:30

地点：柳林校区格致楼918会议室

主办单位：财政税务学院 科研处

主讲人简介：

李科杨，对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院副教授，SSCI期刊China Economic Review副主编。主要研究领域为公共经济学、城市与房地产经济学。在Journal of Public Economics、Journal of Development Economics、Journal of Urban Economics、Journal of Human Resources、经济学（季刊）等国内外一流经济学期刊发表论文十余篇。主持国家自然科学基金青年项目，获得亚洲房地产学会年会最佳论文奖、世界华人不动产学会年会最佳论文奖（特等奖）等学术荣誉和奖励。

内容提要：

We examine how corporate defaults propagate into public finance and the banking system by leveraging bond defaults of Chinese real estate developers in China as plausibly exogenous shocks. Using a staggered difference-in-differences design on a city–quarter panel of 263 cities from 2016 to 2022, we show that developer defaults trigger a sharp substitution from land revenues to local government financing vehicle (LGFV) bonds: issuance rises by 67.5%, or approximately CNY 170 billion annually. Strikingly, this borrowing expansion occurs without widening yield spreads, indicating non-market absorption. We trace this to city commercial banks, which absorb local LGFV bonds under government influence and subsequently issue subordinated debt to manage the resulting capital pressure. This transmission from real estate distress to municipal borrowing and finally to local banks highlights a novel fiscal-financial risk channel. Our findings extend the literature on state-owned banks, local government debt, and systemic risk by demonstrating how fiscal institutions exacerbate financial fragility when market discipline fails.

本讲座以中国房地产开发企业债券违约作为准外生冲击，考察企业违约如何向公共财政与银行体系传导风险。基于2016—2022年263个城市的季度面板数据，采用多期双重差分法（渐进DID）进行实证分析，结果表明：开发商违约会导致地方政府收入从土地出让收入显著转向城投债融资，城投债发行规模上升67.5%，年均新增规模约1700亿元人民币。值得注意的是，此类举债扩张并未伴随信用利差走阔，表明其属于非市场化承接。本文将这一现象归因于城市商业银行：在政府影响下，城商行大量承接本地城投债，进而通过发行次级债缓解由此产生的资本压力。这一“房地产风险→地方政府举债→本地银行”的传导链条，揭示了一条全新的财政—金融风险传导渠道。研究拓展了国有银行、地方政府债务与系统性风险领域的研究，表明当市场约束失效时，财政体制会加剧金融脆弱性。